Saturday, March 28, 2009

Political Latino Music


Manu Chua, obstensibly from France, but with Spanish lyrics are performing in Mexico. They came out against state repression which occurred in Atenco, a city north of Mexico City, in 2006. The same year, massive state repression happened in Oaxaca.

In Atenco's case, many women were sexually violated. Many men, women and children jailed. The struggle was over the right to sell products on the street. The local government wanted to "clean" up the town.

So Manu Chua had a press conference and condemned the repression. Then got threatened with being thrown out cos the Mexican constitution has a section in it about foreigners not being involved in politics. Then they cancelled some shows, then Peter Gabrial, who is also here performing, joined in and condemned the Atenco repression and the Calderon (president) government for threatening Manu Chau with deportation.

Then Calderon backed off and agreed to a meeting with Peter Gabrial and other artists/ performers! There is a picture of Calderon (who never smiles) and the group of artists having it out. Great stuff. Manu Chua got to stay and perform some more. Of course, Calderon muttered niceties about getting more evidence about what happened in Atenco and if, it did, doing something. I think nothing concrete will come out of the Calderon government on Atenco. Elections are coming up, so Calderon had to placate the musicians who have heaps of influence over the youth. The real victory here was the back down over the deportation, and the solidarity and politics shown by the musicians. That, and the fact Atenco and the crimes of Calderon and co. are being raised once again.

Nice.

Peter Gabriel, below, looking splendid.



Which gives me a nice segue into listing some good political latino/ vasco bands.

Molotov - anarchistas de EU y México
Kortatu - del país Vasco
Fabuloso Codillacs - Argentína
Todos Tus Muertes - hiphop, Argentína
Aterciopelados - Columbiano
Los Prisioneros - Chile
Panteón rocoró - México, ska music
Quilopayan: Chile
Calle 13: Puerto Rico - regattron, política y pro-feminista
Cafe ta Cuba
Orishaz: Cuba - hip hip
Ruben Vladez
Kandela: Cuba feminista, hip hop

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Violence in Mexico and the economic downturn

Narco-trafficking violence is destroying many lives in México. 4000 people were killed by it (official figures) and 1000 have already been killed since January 2009. A "Merida Initiative" is being discussed - which is US government 'help' with border control. Many a calling in Plan Columbia - just in México. Plan Columbia, was a huge monetry hand out to Columbian dictator Uribbe to 'obsetibly' cotnrol the drug trade. In reality, it was US help to the dictator to kill more unionists and lefties. Protests are taking place against the US and Calderon proposal, as Méxican soverignty is at stake.

On the economic crisis, 6000 Mexicans are losing their jobs per day.

Here are some articles which shed some light on both topics. They are not written by me, and I do not endorse all the political sentiments or proposals within.

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2009/0311_mexican_economy_chat/0311_mexican_economy_chat.pdf

http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2009/03_mexico_drug_market_felbabbrown.aspx

Monday, March 23, 2009

Lesbian March, People's Ecomomy March


There was around 4000-5000 women and men at Saturdays lesbian pride march. Great energy. A week before, there had been a Lesbian, Feminist Conference for Latin America and the Caribbean. Which I missed, due to not having the details. Around 5000 women went to the Conference, which sounded good, from the snippets of information I gleaned from two participants. One women from Peru, who was at the Conference spoke at Sat's rally and was very good.

(picture from La Jornada)

She wore a Lenin necklace, and many political badges. She called for unity with unions, progressive political parties and a stronger, more unified gay rights movement. The point was not lost on the organisers of the rally, who produced a poster saying men should not come, and did not strive to bring unions to the rally. The rlly organisers also made the point many times about the rally being political party free. This is despite Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) having a great record on queer rights and the first elected open lesbian to Congress, in 1997 - Patricia Jiménez.

They did get 2 women from the city of Cuidad Juarez which is under semi-martial law to speak. Cuidad Juarez is a frontier town, on the border of Mexico and the US. Lots of drug trade goes through the town, and it is rife with violence and gang warfare. 100 women have been disappeared in the last 5-6 months.

The PAN government sent troops into the town, which has not abated the assasinations. Obama is talking about sending US troops in. Rallies have been taking place against the militirsation of the city. As they should be.

Back to the dyke rally.

Was good, big, lots of energy. Lesbians are derogatorily called "tortillas" here. So there was a chant "No me gusta PAN, no me gusta PAN, me gusta tortilla - comida nacional". I dont like bread, I dont like bread, I like tortilla, national food.

A play on the fact that PAN is the party in power federally, and aligned with the Catholic Church and conservative.

A GREAT Cuban feminist duo hip hop band called "Kandela" performed at the end. They are really political, pro-Cuban revolution. Very cool.

Then a party took place around the corner from the end of the march with this cool 80s eske salsa, cumbia women's band. Was very cool.

On Sunday, 30,000 - 40,000 people rallied in the cities centre to demand a People's Ecomony. Mexican banks have the highest taxes in the world, according to one speaker. 6000 people are losing their jobs per day, and in response the PAN government are making moves to try to privitise the petrol industry.

Obrador, the legitimate president is at the forefront of the campaign for a People's Economy. This rally was nation wide and dynamic.

The next move is a rally outside the Congress to demand the top level public funcionaries take a salary cut to ave the poor from further destitution.

There was a meeting on the Sat (same day as the Dyke rally) of 12,000 local leaders of PRD/ or the movement for a people's economy. Elections are in July here and the country is in election mode. But Obrador was at pains to communicate the movement for a Peoples Economy was not beholden to personal ambitions.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

The Militant Mexican Homosexual and our plan of action

This is a translated article from a magazine titled "Gay Pride, Why this?"Consultorio Sexual, Edicion No. 7, enero 2009, D.F México, Editor: Germán Flores Trujillo.

The article is "The Militant Homosexual and our plan of action - Petitions and Demands," and is about the gay rights movements demands in Mexico.

"The militant homosexual and our plan of action"

The gay movement is facing distinct obstacles to be recognised and we consider that there will be interest and have ilustrated these points


We want to have a life the way we are in front of the eyes of society and that no-one rap
proaches us or shows us nothing but respect.

There is exists a strong campaign that we are carrying out within the media of communication, in the government and within the laws and even in the same system of education in the United States.

Its important to give a count of the gay groups ther
e are very well organised and in the state environment and we exersise a political influence very strong and at a national scale. This ferocious militant activity is possible should that we are capable of collecting millions of dollars annually in the first world for political activities.

The 25th APril, 2003, the homosexual movement carried out till the end, a gay muach of pride in Washington and thousands of couples of gay men and homosexual women they got married with the help of Reverend Troy Perry, who founded a chu
rch for homosexuals, as he is, that has extended from California to all the United States and reached 15 other countries, including México, Peru and Argentina.

Also participating were 100s of transvestities and transexuals. During the march, the activists for the rights of homosexuals, they raised seven general demands, around which they grouped 55 other specific demands.

The first demand is to abolish all the laws which prohibit gay unions and that legalise all the types of sexual, intimate activity. This demand implies the changing of the laws of consent, to permit relations with people of the same sex and already what is acheived in other places, gay marriage.


The second demand is that to be also more common that we do not spend our own money to pay for operations to change sex.

The third demand chosen is the legalisation of marriages of members of the same sex in all countries and adoption of babies.

The fourth demand chosen requires a full participat
ion of us, lesbians, homosexuals, bi-sexuals and transexuals in programs of education within childrens preschools and school orientation in general.

The fifth demand chosen requires that the anti-contraceptives are disposed to all people and included regularly those with few resources.

The sixth demand chosen is the open availability of artifical insemination of lesbians and bi-sexuals and prohibition of expression of wor
ry about homosexuality that is based in religion.

The seventh chosen demand is organisations like Boy Scouts accept a gay patrol as director.

These demands are part of the objectives of all
the homosexual groups, those which want the acceptance of homosexuality as a human right more and that protect that conduct in all the mexican states, beggining with the cities, until reaching a national level.

In fact, the demands mentioned are part of a project of federal law about the cvil rights of lesbians and homosexuals that the gay groups acheived to have introduced in Congress in the United States.


In the last years, certain homosexual organisations have united to organisations such as the Family Planning Federation of the United States, to ask that they offer more extensive sexual education.

They ask that sex education be included in the e
ducation about the body and the illnesses, other theme that the homosexual activists use is to promote a new style of in the schools, in the universitys and medias of communication.

In all of this pro-homosexual campaign we find to open the mind of society to create this the majority acceptability for all the homosexual and
lesbian groups.

Already we have acheived in some places in the US, but to acheive it in the 3rd world like Mexico, we know this will be very difficult.

Also, in various of the universities, more prominent of the countries of the third world, and now we have begun in UNAM, already we have introdu
ced courses, conferences, and until they have created centers of study about homosexuality and lesbianism, presenting them like styles of life so perfectably acceptable like the heterosexual.

We are able to see, by travelling through this road, that the gay movement lacks a lot. The most difficult thing is to be able to convince the society that we are born here and to avoid that the people think that we have returned thus on account of an unfortunate event that a great trauma caused us.












Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Essay in Spanish, Bolivia, friend

Para mi clase espanol,
_____________________________________

Bolivia, amiga

No era un día como los otros. Yo estaba en una cuidad pequeña, a las afueras de Bolivia. Yo visitaba Bolivia, buscaba Argentina. En Argentina, esta cuidad fronteriza tiene calles trazadas, caminos más rectos y árboles más verdes que Bolivia. La comida era más sabrosa.

Bolivia, tiene los colores del país brillante, gente con orgullo, historia fuerte, me parece como una mujer con experiencia, sabia pero aún joven. No llevaba un vestido, sino una armadura con colores rojo, verde fuerte, amarillo radiante, violeta luminoso, azul resplandeciente y rosa como flores. Colores de los indios de la América Latina.

Al llover, el cielo sobre Bolivia está llorando, Bolivia lleva paraguas grandes con un dibujo grande del sol. Los paraguas cubren a toda la gente Boliviana, aún aquellos que viven en el este del país, y quien no lleva o viste ropa con colores luminosos. Las piel es más blanca en el este, los edificios más grandes, la relación con el norte es más fuerte. Los paraguas cubren a toda la gente boliviana, pero alguien no los quiere.

Bolivia, aunque pobre, tiene una hermana, Haití, en una situación más grave. Para los habitantes de Haití no hay camisón, muñecas, anillos, portafolios ni corbatas porque sus alcancías están con un hermano muy poderoso, malo-animado, glotón y sin alma. El hermano, se llama 'el Banco Mundial', tiene una personalidad cruel.

Pero ahora Bolivia, tiene regalos de rico y sabroso chocolate, mascotas lindas y cariñosas, carteras con más dinero, y una chamarra o dos para el tablado del mundo. Para las mujeres bolivianas con confianza en este tablado del mundo, con colores del arco iris, hay minifaldas. Regalos de hermanos amable - Venezuela, Ecuador, Cuba y Nicaragua. Regalos de hermanos con poder de la gente.

La personalidad y la psicología de Bolivia ha cambiado. Antes, la mayor parte de la vida fue dolorosa. Los cuerpos tenían dolor. Pero ahora la gente tiene una sonrisa firme y orgullosa, sin reserva.

El Salvador, Puebla, Rallies

The great news of the weekend is the Farabundo Marti National Liberation (FMLN) won the presidency of El Salvador, with lefty journalist candidate Mauricio Funes.

Wooohooo!

In the 80s up to 75,000 people were disappeared in a brutal period of the small countries history. El Salvador is a small
country in Central America. Only 4.2 million people were eligible to vote. Almost 2.5 million Salvadoreans live in the US. Millions of Salvadoreans fled the country in the 80s. ARENA, the US- backed party, was in power in the 80s, and 'led' El Salvador through the dictatorial times. La Jornada, the left-wing paper here, quotes Funes as saying he likes the PT in Brazil, and the work of Lulu, the PT candidate. Lulu is in the "centre" here in Latin America, and has clamped down on workers and student protests.

The tactic used by ARENA to try and discredit Lunes, was to run "he's a communist scare campaign" with TV ads in the lead up, with pictures of Lunes, Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez. The mass of people in El Salvador saw through it, and voted for the formerly armed FMLN.

Within La Jornada, Lunes distances himself from the "Bolivarian revolution, " but talk
s of guarrenteeing jobs, human rights and all things progressive. He had a cordial chat with Obama, and with Chavez, according to La Jornada. Time will tell. And hats off to the people of El Salvador who have endured so very very very much.

A good vid to see is Romeo - all about the lefty Archbishop who was brutally murdered by the death squads in front of his congregation cos he fought against them. He was a liberation theologist who fought for heaven on earth.
Top dude.

Oscar Romeo also reinvigorated a quote from Dom Helder Camara, a priest of yee olde time ago, who said “When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why the poor have no food, they call me a communist.”

Another good background article on the elections -
http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/787/40509

The weekend that passed I visited Puebla, an old city 2 hours out from Mexico City (D.F). There are gay bars there, and people dancing within them, plus loads of museums and very large and ostentatious churches. 100 plus in the 3 million people strong city. I have never SEEN so much gold. I hold dear, respect to each and every persons religious beliefs, and there are a lot of beleivers in Latin America, but the amount of gold in the central church was obscene. When 36% of households in D.F are only covered by cardboard, its an effing waste of resources.

A rally is approaching this weekend, a March for Lesbians. Its the 4th one held here in D.F and is mostly about dyke pride. There are no rally demands raised against the government, and the poster says "In each kiss - a revolution".

Unfortunatley, it takes a bit more than that.

Nonetheless, its pretty good to see a dyke specific rally taking place. The week after that, there will be a massive country wide rally for a People's Economy.

Again, hats of to the couregeous people of El Salvador.


Protests target banks

http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/787/40508

This was printed in Green Left Weekly,

Mexico: Protests target banks


Rachel Evans, Mexico City
13 March 2009


On March 3, thousands rallied outside the headquarters of the Association of Mexican Banks (AMB), in the centre of Mexico City, to denounce speculation, bank fees and the national government´s response to the economic crisis.

The rally was called by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). It is part of a two month “people’s economy” campaign, which will culminate in a mobilisation of people from across the country in the centre of Mexico City.

Lopez Obrador was the PRD’s presidential candidate in 2006, who was robbed of victory by a widely acknowledged large-scale fraud. He is popularly known as the “legitimate president” and the movement against the theft of the 2006 presidential elections was one of the largest in Mexican history, with demonstrations involving as many as 2.5 million people.

In front of a spirited crowd at AMB, Lopez Obrador denounced President Felipe Calderon, arguing that his cabinet should receive awards for ineptitude. He claimed the auction of more than US$20 million by the Bank of Mexico to stop the fall of the peso was “for the sake of powerful merchants”.

The decisions taken by the government, he argued, “benefit bankers, big businessmen, traffickers and corrupt politicians who for their voraciousness are destroying this country”.

The economic crisis is badly affecting working people in Mexico, with as many as 6000 workers losing their jobs per day.

Lopez Obrador and the PRD have been calling for the Calderon government to establish an emergency fund to address the crisis by reducing $200 billion of waste presently within the government.

Measures to eradicate waste include include reducing top government, administrative and judicial functionaries salaries by half, and eradicating the exorbitant pensions granted to ex-presidents.

The rally demanded four matters be addressed by the Calderon government and AMB. Firstly, a thorough-going investigation into the people, companies and banking institutions that buy cheap international reserves from the Bank of Mexico.

Secondly, Lopez Obrador denounced the abuses by the financial institutions against bank-users, and announced more support should be given to victims charged excessive rates on credit cards and mortgage rates.

Thirdly, Lopez Obrador condemned the fact that currently “banks do not perform a function that assists the development of the country”.

On the contrary, “they charge commissions and interest over and above international standards, do not award credit to productive sectors and devote themselves to speculative behaviour and living off the treasury”.

Finally, Lopez Obrador denounced the banks for “destroying to the country”.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Mexico: Social and political struggles and the state of the left

Mexico: Social and political struggles and the state of the left An article published in LINKS http://links.org.au/node/912

Peter Gellert is a US-born, long-term activist, now Mexican citizen. He is a leader of Mexico's Movement for Cuban Solidarity. Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal’s Rachel Evans spoke to Gellert in Mexico City.

Februa

ry 18, 2009 -- Inside Peter Gellert´s small apartment books of history, politics and art, line groaning walls. Meticulously framed Cuban posters monopolise the remaining space. Three turtles climb over each other in a fish tank that gurgles sporadically.

'NAFTA destroyed Mexican agriculture'

"Mexico signed onto the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994 which meant greater subordination of Mexico to United States’ (US) interests", began Gellert. "NAFTA destroyed Mexican agriculture. Mexico was sustainable, but now we have 40% of food imported. We also had a mass exodus of young men from the Mexican countryside to work in the US. Twelve-million people, one eighth of the entire Mexican popul

ation, are now in the United States. NAFTA didn't only affect agriculture in a negative way, but local retail was also badly affected”, noted Gellert.

"Mexico was flooded with franchises, 'Domino Pizzas' for example, whose every ingredient comes from the US. The flour, tomatoes -- they are all from the US. They use no local produce at all. I am sure Kentucky Fried Chicken and McDonald’s have the same policy. Wal-Mart is here as well, which has meant local markets with fresh agricultural produce, are getting wiped out. An added effect is that obesity is mushrooming. There was not as much obesity in the 70s, before the onset of American franchises."

"The count

ryside is in a massive crisis”, stated Gellert. "The average wage earner in the countryside is earning 40 pesos or less a day. The minimum wage has increased by 4% per year, but inflation has seen prices mushroom. As a result, there has been massive immigration from the Mexican countryside to Mexican cities and from the countryside to the US. In the 1950s, 75% of the Mexican people lived in rural areas. Now only 20% are based in the countryside.

"The economic crisis has seen everything rise in price. Unions can strike, but it is a long and complicated process. And while Mexico is a gasoline producer, gasoline prices have increased 26 times in the last year. Compounding the problem, 90% of gasoline stations rob customers. Many workers at gasoline stations have t

o ini

tia

lly pay for their job! Some get no wage, and only survive on tips or stealing. Twenty-five-gallon cars get charged for 30 gallons. It's a huge issue”, explained Gellert.

"The current Mexican president, Felipe Calderón, is from the National Action Party (PAN). This government has wanted to open the oil industry up to private national and foreign investment, and the unions and social movement have forced a partial retreat. Manuel López Obrador, who was the presidential candidate of the

Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) in 2006, has been crucial in this campaign against privatisation. Obrador

was robbed of the presidency in the fraudulent elections of 2006”, Gellert reported.

2006 elections

"In these elections, more than 30% of polling stations recorded discrepancies between the number of ballots received and the number of ballots cast. In response to these stolen elections, there were the biggest mobilisations in Mexico's history.

"Obrador was popularly known as the legitimate president. He led the National Democratic Convention, which declared a shad

ow, legitimate government.

At one stage 2.5 million people marched against electoral fraud. For 40 days there was a seven-kilometre occupation of the major road in Mexico City. This road was occupied 24 hours a day. Traffic had to go elsewhere as the city was broken in two.’’

"In working-class neighbourhoods Obrador had overwhelming support, as well as some support in middle-class areas", said Gellert. "The support for the PRD and Obrador w

as immense. For example, in the working-class neighbourhoods adjacent to where I live, the PRD beat Calderon 8 to 1.

"In reality, the shadow, legitimate government that Obrador initiated could not do much. In fact, to a certain extent, it has been overshadowed by the campaign to defend the government-owned oil industry, headed up by Obrador. There are thousands of 'grassroots brigades' or campaign units in local areas of Mexico fighting off privatisation plans of the PAN government -- with the campaign mobilising thousands”, noted Gellert.

Workers and unions

"Every worker has to join a union – this is

obligatory in Mexico”, continued Gellert. But 90% of those unions are "white" unions that are controlled by the bosses. Workers don't have real democratic control of their unions. Ninety per cent of the unions in Mexico are white unions, and have no democratic participation within them at all”, said Gilbert.

Social security workers

"Another site of struggle has been the social security workers union contract”, said Gellert. "The government pays low wages to this sector, but they provide good benefits. There is

a Christmas bonus that is obligatory for all companies to pay. Private sector workers get a bonus of at least 15 days, while in government it is at least 30 days. Social security workers get a three month Christmas bonus. Mind you, the Mexican government does not provide unemployment benefits or student benefits. But the government has been trying to whittle away collective bargaining agreement provisions, and this has resulted in big battles”, remarked Gellert.

Privatisation of education

"For all intents and purposes, public universities are free, with the government charging minor tuition fees. But the quality is not the best. The private university system is better quality and very expensive. Companies are starting to hire only private university students. However, education privatisa

tion has been fiercely contested.

"A massive student-led fight arose in 1999, as the government tried to introduce upfront fees. To put this fight in context -- free education was one of the victories of the 1910 Mexican revolution -- a historic moment in Mexican history. Tuition had not been raised since 1941. This big campaign in 1999 was run through large democratic assemblies -- with everyone, students and professors alike -- participating. Fortunately, the campaign had enough momentum despite many ultraleft excesses to, in essence, win its demands. Public university education is still basically and for all intents and purposes free”, emphasised Gellert.

History of struggle

"There has been a consistency of major campaigns from the heady 1960s in Mexico, unlike in other countries, which saw a downturn in the struggle. In 1968 there was a huge student struggle. In 1986, there was another upsurge of the students. In 1988 there was a left-wing split from a major political party – the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)”, noted Gellert. "We then had another upsurge in 1994 with the Z

apatistas in Chiapas. In 1999 there was the upsurge in the student movement and, currently, social movement leaders are being born in a number of struggles."

"Currently", continued Gellert, "the electricity workers’ union is fighting against privatisation and government attacks on labour laws. At the moment, that sector has a rather advanced union contract. In Mexican labour legislation, there is no hourly pay – only monthly pay. Additionally, it's hard

for the bosses to lay people off as they have to pay redundancy. Hence, they want more flexibility. The miners’ union has also been struggling hard against government intervention in their union. But it is the campaign to defend the oil industry that is the biggest and broadest campaign to date."

Social disintegration

"In international news there is coverage of kidnappings taking place in Mexico”, reflected Gellert. "Rich people are being held to ransom and it's quite bad. In one case they stole a child. The kidnappers got the ransom but killed the kid anyway. It's the drug cartels. But it is linked to high government officials. The head of the anti-drug unit was on the payroll of drug dealers. Police are also involved because their s

alaries are so minimal. Horribly low. Sixty per cent of police agents are said to be on the pay of drug traffickers.”

The Mexican left

"There are huge social movements in Mexico, and the left press has significant influence. La Jornada, a left-wing newspaper, has a circulation of between 70,000 to 100,000 copies per day. It reflects the existence of a social left, a community of sorts. It is the second- or third-largest selling newspaper in Mexico. Online, it has 120,000 readers per day", reported Gellert.

http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/

"The electoral left is also very strong. They control Mexico City

-- which is the political centre of Mexico. Mexico City holds one quarter of Mexico's entire population. Out of 16 districts in Mexico City – the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) has control of 14. The PRD also has Mexico City´s mayor, Marcel Ebrad. There are also a lot of regional leftist governments.

"Additionally, within Mexico City, as in other parts of the country, an urban popular movement exists. There are 1000 independent neighbourhood organisations in the city alone. The national workers’ confederation (UNT) is a strong, independent movement. The students are organised faculty by faculty at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Conversely, the Marxist parties have pret

ty much collapsed here”, explained Gellert.

Political parties

"The government rules by repression and cooption. Repression is a constant factor in Mexican politics. At the cooption end, there are numerous former leftists in government. Former activists are even to be found in the ruling National Action Party (PAN) government, arguing that if they were not there, PAN would be worse. They are lured by high salaries, and the excitement of power.

"The PRI got ousted by PAN in the 2000 elections, and is weakened – but it is planning a come-back. The Green Party here is in a permanent alliance with the PRI, and is utterly and completely discredited. Its main platform is the reintroduction of the death penalty! Something not even the PRI bothers with. In fact, even PAN and PRI are opposed to the death penalty”, explained Gellert.

"PAN, formed in the 1920s, is linked to the Catholic Church and is anti-abortion and thoroughly neoliberal -- very conservative. PAN wants more links with the US, but it has to contend with a deep-seated anti-imperialist sentiment within Mexico. The PRI will make a comeback, but it is a wounded tiger -- terribly discredited.

"The PRD, founded in 1989, is going through a major crisis and Obrador, currently, is looking at the minor parties to see if a broad electoral front can be registered using their ballot status instead of running on the PRD ticket. This possibility he has left open.”

The Party of Democratic Revolution

"There is a strong likelihood there will be a split in the PRD after the coming elections in 2009. The possible split is not over being in government; insofar as there are political issues at stake -- the internal conflicts usually take the form of disputes over posts, candidacies and the huge amounts of money coming from the state subsidies, rather than party program or orientation. Rather, a possible split would involve the degree of subordination to the parliamentary rules of the game versus more of an orientation toward the mass movement and more of a frontal opposition toward the Calderón administration", explained Gellert.

"The PRD was born after the 1988 elections, following a left-wing split from the PRI, with election fraud leading to mass mobilisations. The PRD allows tendencies to exist within its organisational structure, but these tendencies tend to be centred on personalities, not a political program. This exacerbated some of the worst aspects of Mexican culture – such as the use of acarredos, whereby the leader of a social organisation basically corrals the ranks into participating in marches and rallies.

"Obrador has been dealing with internal tensions within the PRD over positions by leading mass mobilisations. Obrador does not describe himself as a socialist, but he is building up grassroots committees around defending the oil industry, while not neglecting work with parliamentary deputies. Obrador is not depending on parliamentary politics and is broadly considered to have won the 2006 elections."

Zapatistas

"In Chiapas, the Zapatistas's project is important and positive, constructing people's power within the communities”, explained Gellert. "Outside indigenous, peasant communities of Chiapas, however, the model clearly does not work. In all major struggles outside Chiapas, the Zapatistas have basically abstained, with the partial exception of the campesino movement and on agricultural issues. As a result, the Zapatistas have earned a reputation for being sectarian.

"They won't turn up to rallies if any political party speaks, or involves themselves in anything with political party involvement. They consider parties part of the 'power structure'. They see unions in the same light. They tend to be Chiapas-centred. The Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) developed a political wing -- the Zapatista National Liberation Front -- as it understood the need to relate to civil society. But it dissolved this group a few years after its formation when it was clear that it wasn't going anywhere.

"For example, in 2006 there was a massive movement against electoral fraud; there have been struggles in defence of the electric power industry, of the miners’ union and for an increase in education funding and teachers’ salaries in Oaxaca, which led to generalised mass upsurge. In all of these movements, the Zapatistas have basically abstained.

"The movement led by the Zapatistas had everything going for it -- they put indigenous rights on the front burner in Mexico”, continued Gellert. "They were a force that was not corrupt. Indigenous people have a raw deal here. And the Zapatistas had heaps of support. One quarter of a million people came to a rally when Subcommandante Marcos came to town. Their sectarian approach has led, unfortunately, to their almost complete isolation. At May Day in 2008, there were 600,000 people marching. But no Zapatistas to be seen."

Left unity

"At the moment, there is little movement for a left socialist party project. There is agreement in abstract for 'unity', yes, there is some movement for that -- but there is no issue that is forcing that move”, reflected Gellert.

"The PRD is in a crisis. It is the social left – hundreds of thousands if not millions of people are involved at different levels but in terms of a unity party project, so far, nothing. In 2009 there will be elections... After the elections there is a strong possibility of a split as a result of infighting over control, finances and candidacies. It is very bad, and gives the left a bad reputation.
"We will see who, among the left groups, can take advantage of the economic crisis and use it to grow.

Cuba

``The rejection of the US economic blockade against Cuba, however, is expressed across the board. Even PAN and the PRI support the campaign to end the blockade against Cuba”, commented Gellert.
"
Cuba is a political reference point in defining Mexican government policy. All of the Mexican government’s foreign policy moves through the prism of US-Mexican relations, i.e. will Mexico bend to US foreign policy? When President Fox was in power, there was an Iberoamerican Summit dinner which both Fox and Fidel Castro were to attend. Fox called Fidel to ask if Fidel could make himself scarce, so as not to make George Bush uncomfortable.

"Fidel told the world Fox had asked him to do this, which Fox denied. Fidel -- who had taped the conversation -- proved this to be an utter lie. Fox was very embarrassed. In Mexico, Cuba is much more a reference point for the population, more than is the case for other Latin American countries."

Conclusion

"This economic crisis will cost PAN. The divided left has a bad reputation here among the Mexican people, with the PRD crisis playing out in public -- it is not a private discussion. Obrador has consolidated, however, through his involvement with, and support of, the oil defence campaign, in particular", concluded Gilbert.